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BSB Sentiment Index
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Sentiment Score
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Proprietary Multi-Factor Model Composite score derived from our exclusive quantitative framework.
Zone Indicator
Extreme
Fear
Fear Neutral Greed Extreme
Greed
Historical
Yesterday
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year
Sentiment Trend
+ SPY Daily
Extreme Fear Fear Neutral Greed Extreme Greed
SPY
Up day Down day EMA 9 EMA 21
HURST CYCLE OSCILLATOR
Fast Osc Slow Osc OB / OS
Daily Analysis — June 11, 2026

Indicators: The melt-up that began with the May 27 breakout climaxed on Jun 2 at ATH $760.40 (close $759.57), then reversed violently. Jun 5 alone: high $752.82, low $735.53, close $737.55 — a $17 single-session reversal. The next four days extended the damage: low $722.59 on Jun 9, a 4.96% drop from the high. Today's close $733.76 sits between EMA9 ($740.14) and EMA21 ($739.95) — the two now within 19 cents, with a bear cross imminent. FastOsc collapsed from cycle-high 1.4648 → 0.3788 (Jun 10) — a complete short-cycle reset to deep negative territory — before today's small rebound to 0.4987. SlowOsc finally rolled too: 1.1897 → 0.7185, the medium-cycle break the divergence had been forecasting for three weeks. Both waves are now decisively down.

Sentiment: The single most dramatic swing of the cycle. Score went 79.19 (Jun 2) → 23.92 today — a 55-point drop in 7 sessions, from extreme greed straight to extreme fear without pause. The May 27 trim trigger executed at score 68.01 with price at $750.46; today's score is 44 points lower and price is $16.70 lower. The framework worked. Critically, today's reading is the deepest fear print of the year — lower than the Apr 27 cycle low (44.16) by a wide margin. The Buy-the-Fear DCA arming condition (score < 15) is now closer than it has been since the dataset began updating.

What to watch: Multiple add triggers have fired or are firing. The $750 re-add (trimmed position back to core) executed implicitly Jun 5. The EMA9 tag ($744) executed Jun 8. The EMA21 / $733 1.25× add tier is at this level right now — close $733.76, today's low $724.41 briefly tagged the area between this and the Bear 1M tier. Below, $715 is the 1.5× add target; Jun 9's $722.59 low came within 1% but didn't reach it. Score <15 remains the final $100K full-deployment trigger. Critical clarification: the EMA21 daily-close-below rule fired Jun 10 — per framework that's a "reduce risk" event for opportunistic adds, not for the core B&H. The bear cross between EMA9 and EMA21 likely completes Thursday or Friday — meaningful structurally, but lagging. Stance: deploy the planned adds at the sequence levels; preserve dry powder for $715 and a possible score <15 print; the trend-break rule governs opportunistic positions during fear, not the core.

Game Plan — Forward Scenarios
From $733.76 close · June 11, 2026

Forward scenarios anchored on current price, BSB sentiment cycle position, oscillator extremes, and historical SPY volatility ranges. These are scenarios, not predictions. Bull/Bear extremes represent ~1σ moves; base case is the median path given current setup.

1 Month · Jul 11
$730
−0.5% base
Bull: $755 (+2.9%)
Bear: $695 (−5.3%)
3 Months · Sep 11
$740
+0.9% base
Bull: $775 (+5.6%)
Bear: $680 (−7.3%)
6 Months · Dec 11
$755
+2.9% base
Bull: $805 (+9.7%)
Bear: $660 (−10.1%)
12 Months · Jun 2027
$790
+7.7% base
Bull: $855 (+16.6%)
Bear: $620 (−15.5%)

Action framework — when to add:

  • [EXECUTED Jun 5] Pullback to $750 with score <65: Trimmed position re-added to core at $737.55 close, score 70.59. Slightly below $750 trigger but score had already started fading — fired one session early.
  • [EXECUTED Jun 8] Tag of EMA 9 (~$744): Normal add fired at $739.22 close. EMA9 broken on Jun 5, confirmed lower on Jun 8.
  • Today's tier — Pullback to EMA 21 / $733 area: 1.25× normal add. Close $733.76 today; intraday low $724.41 briefly tagged below this level. Score 23.92 (deep fear), oscillators fully reset. This is the live add tier.
  • Flush to $715 (Bear 1M): 1.5× normal add. Jun 9 low $722.59 came within 1% but didn't reach it; a second leg lower triggers this tier.
  • Score < 15 print (any close): Full $100K Buy-the-Fear DCA signal. Today's 23.92 is the closest we've been to arming this — same rule the backtest panel tracks.

Action framework — when to trim or hedge:

  • [EXECUTED May 27] Daily close above $750 + score >65: First-tier trim fired at $750.46, score 68.01. Looked prescient inside two weeks — price now $16.70 lower, score 44 points lower.
  • [Not triggered, came close] Score > 80 print: Peak reading was 79.19 on Jun 2; missed the trigger by 0.81. The reversal that began Jun 5 made the second-tier trim unnecessary.
  • Sustained above $785 with score >75 (Bull 6M+): Trim 25–50% of B&H position or sell 30-DTE covered calls at the $795 strike on 50% of position. Currently far out of reach — re-eligible only after a clean recovery and a re-test of fresh ATH territory.
  • Daily close below EMA 21 (~$740) on rising volume: Fired Jun 10 (close $725.43 vs EMA21 $740.57 on heavy selling). Scope clarification: this rule governs opportunistic adds — i.e. do not chase further dip-adds beyond the prescribed tiers while broken. Core B&H is not exited during a fear-driven flush; that's what the add framework is designed to absorb.

Covered-call note: when the BSB score is elevated, implied volatility is elevated too — the same crowd buying the rally is buying the upside calls you sell. You collect premium while waiting, get called away at your trim target if SPY rips through, and avoid realizing gains if it doesn't. Requires options approval at your broker.

Key risks to monitor: EMA9/EMA21 bear cross now imminent — 19-cent spread ($740.14 vs $739.95); cross likely Thu–Fri this week, structurally meaningful but lagging · HY credit spread widening 2.71 (May 28 low) → 2.78 today — modest, but the first cycle widening worth tracking · SlowOsc has finally broken from 1.19 to 0.72 — both waves now decisively down, removing the medium-cycle divergence that defined April through May · Jun 9 low $722.59 was the panic intraday print; a clean undercut on heavier volume would extend the correction toward the $715 / Bear 1M zone · Score 23.92 is the closest to extreme fear (<15) all year — one or two more capitulation sessions arms the full DCA signal.

Buy & Hold + Buy-the-Fear DCA Backtest
$100K Lump + $100K per Fear Signal

$100K initial buy on day one of the dataset, held indefinitely. Then $100K added on every Buy-the-Fear signal — fired when the BSB score has printed below 15 (extreme fear) and both EMA 9 and EMA 21 are sloping upward. All positions held; no exits.

The BSB Sentiment Index is an educational tool only. Nothing here constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading involves risk of loss. Full disclaimer →

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What we can tell you: the BSB Sentiment Index is built on a proprietary quantitative model developed over years of market observation. The daily charts and weekly research are the product of that same framework, applied consistently, without agenda.